I think they [the current administration] are trying to push us into buying electric cars. Because of the current situation, I have to look at our finances and say, Can I get this new truck, can I hire these two to three new employees, can we go into this new line of business? We need jobs up here, good-paying full-time jobs, she added. Just two have populations in excess of 100,000, the authors said. Its horrible. My opinion is thats just what it is, Shepherd said of COVID-19. Also, spare a thought for Webster County in Georgia. There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000. Their fear is real, mine is. The county is more white than the rest of the nationabout, nationally, according to census data. For example, if we call a county a bellwether if it has one less correct match than the number of elections in a sequence, we will get nearly 19 bellwethers even in a set of eleven elections, and in a set of seven elections, we will see 197 bellwethers far more than the 27 we would find under our assumptions when we require a bellwether to have an unblemished record of predictive success. For much of the last decade, historically Republican suburban areas in Franklin, Ohio,. You have to take the lesser of two evils. Ottawa County along Lake Erie in northwest Ohio had one of the nation's longest streaks of supporting the presidential candidate who won the White House. This belief in the efficacy of small numbers is probably strengthened by the fact that a random sample of only 2,000 or so voters is considered by statisticians large enough to predict election results in an electorate of well 140 million or so at least if the sample is truly random and the respondents are not lying either about their preferences or the likelihood that they will vote in the election. Both Hidalgo and Valencia County, New Mexico, are close to 60 percent Hispanic, while Westmoreland County in Virginia is almost one-third black. We just couldnt believe that Trump had lost.. Unfortunately, however, neither of the reasons for why we might think that previous bellwethers will continue to be bellwethers is valid. Jim was awarded the Reed Irvine Accuracy in . We want to get people off of welfare, we need to get people back into working again, being self sustainable. Most of the jobs up here are part-time or seasonal. The updated report showed that Biden won 509 counties, while Trump won 2,547 counties. Median household incomes range from $65,000 in Bremer County, Iowa, to $32,000 in Hidalgo County, New Mexico. In 2016, he definitely was the lesser of two evils, Zulch said. Fact check: Joe Biden won most votes ever and fewest counties - USA TODAY Eleven of the 19 were located in just six Midwestern states, and Wisconsin alone is home to four, they said. Paul, a 51-year-old resident in Seelyvillejust east of Terre Hautewho also didnt disclose his last name, wont vote either. They run the gamut from. I vote for whomever I think is going to do the better job, whether they are a Democrat or a Republican. Like all-or nothing bellwethers, counties that closely tracked the election for 12 consecutive elections failed to continue that form for a 13th time. Port Clinton, Ohio. They can try all they can to prevent whatever they want to prevent, but nature is going to run its course, no matter what, Tisdell said. A Guide To The Election 'Guides' - NPR.org Bobby Tisdell stands in front of his home in West Terre Haute, Vigo County, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. Greg Abbott of Texas as a possible presidential candidate. Bellwether Counties Historical Performance 1984 to 2020 We live in an evenly divided nation, and the past five presidential elections demonstrate that well with their extremely close outcomes, Bergbower, an associate professor at Indiana State University, said in an email to The Epoch Times. All the negativity, and just pure anger for this one person in office I have never seen it before. They mostly favor who they believe would be best suited to tackle the issues at hand. Peloton plans to complete construction on the building on its 200-acre property and sell it, but will downsize its workforce. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. What Is An Election Bellwether? : NPR Jacobs believes theres more enthusiasm for Trump now than before the 2016 electionin Elk County and around the country. One older woman with a Biden sign outside her home simply said, Im voting for Biden, and thats all Ive got to say.. Our infrastructure is in bad shape.. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. Chamberlin, who has worked for the regional chain for 17 years, estimates he has saved about $2,000 in gas over the past year. Guests are invited to enjoy live music from The BanDura BanDuo, featuring Angelika and Justin Mehes, a brother-sister musical act, visit the Cheremosh Ukrainian Dance Ensemble's costume display featuring traditional Ukrainian folk dance costumes, and connect with the . July 4, 2022 bellwether counties epoch timesdid benjamin franklin help write the declaration of independencedid benjamin franklin help write the declaration of independence Myers works as an electrician and long supported the Democratic Party along with his union. Results from 28 counties have still not been finalized, per Brookings Institution. There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000; Trump won 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. There is nothing we can do about it; the power is out of our hands.. Workforce shortages are mostly everywhere, he said. This includes personalizing content and advertising. The registered Republican voters (8,455) outnumber the registered Democrats (6,731) in Ottawa County. He predicts that many Trump voters will start to waver in the weeks leading up to the election and will end up not voting. This shows not only his strength but also the level of polarisation that took place in the 2020 elections.. The expansion for First Solar was made possible by changes in the U.S. Corporate Tax Policy during the Trump administration. Of the 17 bellwether counties the margin of win by President Trump was 16 points on average! The sentiments of those arriving at or leaving the Kroger grocery down the street in Port Clinton echoed those at the gas station. While these are the top bellwether counties, there are many more that are considered to be predictive. Election bellwether counties in the United States are counties that vote in alignment with the country as a whole in United States presidential elections, so that the county votes for the candidate who ultimately wins the election. He is just outspoken and doesnt filter what he is saying.. He loves his country to the point where he wants it to do well.. He said hes concerned but hopeful for the future. Moreover, if we look at the political features of the bellwethers, we do not find them exclusively among counties that are highly politically competitive. Since the 2020 elections, there also have been 879 newly-registered voters bringing the total to 30,248, Board of Elections director Carol Ann Hill told The Epoch Times. And just a few miles outside the countys urban center of Terre Haute, youll find a sprawl of soybean and corn farms, with a rural demographic that often leans Republican. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. It was everything, all at once, all of a sudden. You expect the price of things to go up, thats inflation for you, Tammy said. Hamilton sees value in both parties, he said, but he considers himself Democratic-leaning. President Trump won every single bellwether county, except Clallam County in Washington. TRENDING: Meet Samuel Armes - Groomed by the CIA and FBI and Author of the Original "1776 Returns" FED-SURRECTION Document - That He . Weve never done that before.. Im seeing more hate for this man than he has hated anyone, Tisdell said. Farming also is huge here. Paul hopes that one day he can save enough money to buy himself a car, so he can drive to Florida and reunite with his family. Will Ohio's Wood County Continue to Be a Reliable - The Epoch Times Were not going to be able to afford this Democratic regime. Until we have term limits for politicians, this country doesnt have a prayer.. March 1, 2022 Updated: March 3, 2022 Print It could be said that Ottawa County is one of the top bellwether counties in Ohio, if not the country. Ive heard all the whiners complaining about what hes doing, but I havent really seen anything hardcore. Its home to four universities, filled with many Democratic-leaning students. The counties are also mostly small and rural. We shouldnt be fighting among each other here. Taking the pulse in Vigo County, Indiana, which has voted for the presidential winner in all but two elections over the past century, Cara is an Orange County, New York-based Epoch Times reporter. We are a rural county here, Hill told The Epoch Times. The bellwether scores map highlights the fact that many states have a good bellwether county or two, even if they did not make the list of the 19 counties which have always voted for the winning candidate, they said. Shepherds family, on the other hand, wasnt much interested in politics. I think we needed somebody like him.. She thinks economic distress from COVID-19 will fuel more unrest. Fourth, it lists whether they won Florida, Ohio and Iowa . 2020: Trump - 59.1%, Biden - 38.5. But not only are bellwethers not really predictors of future success, the likelihood of finding long streaks of prior predictive success has gone down. In West Terre Haute, across the Wabash River from Terre Haute, Bobby Tisdell, a 38-year-old forklift driver, plans to cast his first vote on Election Day. The legislature of Orange County, New York, unanimously passed a revised spending plan of close to $75 million in federal COVID-19 . Were still there right now as a bellwether county, but we dont know whether well keep it up.. I think it worked out without me.. Visual inspection suggests that, like other counties, they voted in 2020 roughly as they did in 2016; given this (and given that many of these counties went solidly for Trump in 2016), it is unsurprising that Biden won only one of them. In particular, recent research which identified nineteen bellwether counties found that they "tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole." President Trump won every single bellwether county, except Clallam County in Washington. Because of supply chain issues, its also difficult to find parts, Miller said. The county, located along the Illinois border, has a mix of rural and urban demographics. Im not even sure what direction were going.. Longtime Rep. Marcy Kaptur, a Democrat who has been in Congress since 1983, is running for reelection; Teresa Gavarone and J.R. Majewski are competing in the GOP primary. Jim Hoft is the founder and editor of The Gateway Pundit, one of the top conservative news outlets in America. The bellwether scores map highlights the fact that many states have a good bellwether county or two, even if they did not make the list of the nineteen counties which have always voted for the winning candidate, they said. On . Wood Countyaswith Ottawa County, its neighbor to the east along Lake Erieis filled with farm fields, is home to many military veterans (about 7,000 of them), and hasnt seen much expansion or change since the late 1970s or early 1980s. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). An Emerson poll conducted shortly before Election Day was completely off, showing Trump and Biden neck-to-neck. He won Ohio by eight, Iowa by eight. Bremer County, Iowa Required fields are marked *. Wood (population 132,248), and Ottawa, are known as bellwether counties for picking the presidential candidate who wins the White Housebut it is uncertain whether Wood County can maintain that reputation. Tammy, who didnt want to provide her last name, told The Epoch Times that during the summer leading up to the 2020 presidential election, the area had a regatta on Lake Erie in Marblehead in support of Donald Trump. Bergbower suspects Trump will win in the county by a smaller margin this year, but will win nonetheless. bellwether counties epoch timesjury duty summons date vs reporting date Get Business Credit and Financing To Grow Your Business!!! For Tisdell, the two major issues that weigh on his mind this year are the riots and the pandemic. Biden Won Despite Losing Most Bellwether Counties Thus it would appear that bellwether. Logistics are a nightmare, Miller said. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Fact check: What's true about the 2020 election, vote counting 2020: Trump - 54.12%, Biden - 45.20%. But, he said, he also doesnt complain. We have vendors and suppliers we contract with, Chamberlin said. I just want Trump in. They are not even the regular masks to filter it out. They see it as just a show, but I think he is for America. The unequal geographic distribution is a somewhat curious phenomenon of bellwether counties. The simple answer is that chance effects can be much greater than most people realize. Those counties were: Warren County, Ill. Vigo County, Ind. He thinks the current criminal justice system imprisons too many people. Nestled along Lake Erie in the northwest of. Figure 1 Counties expected to have unbroken or near unbroken string of correct matches with national election outcome if each county has a 50 percent chance of voting for the winner. Longtime Bowling Green resident Doug Miller, a conservative and Donald Trump supporter who works as a chief operating officer for a heavy-duty trucking company in nearby Fremont, said the company, which was heavily affected during the pandemic, is still navigating challenges. Trump is challenging the results in several states, alleging fraud, voter suppression, and illegal restrictions on Republican poll watchers. A small-business owner, who didnt want to be identified, said hes voting for Biden. We need election reform.. bellwether. Previously, he covered national topics including politics, economy, education, and law enforcement. That is, until this year. Its just not that great, Paul said. As part of The Epoch Times Association, Inc., a nonprofit organization we stand outside of political interests and the pursuit of profit, to educate readers about today's most critical issues . Haotian Chen University of California, Irvine Michael Sakal is a former reporter for The Epoch Times. John Hawker, a 74-year-old Port Clinton resident who grew up in Toledo, was sitting at the end of the bar and also weighed in on the state of affairs. We and the rest of the states boards of elections have been directed by the Ohio Secretary of States Office to hold the election on May 3.